Hierarchical Linear Modeling of Grade 8 Math Achievement in TIMSS: Explaining Learning Gaps in Egypt

Abstract

The global education agenda has evolved from the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which focused primarily on universal access, to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 4), which place paramount emphasis on quality education. This study examines the determining factors of mathematics achievement in Egypt to identify barriers to SDG 4. While Egypt has achieved significant success in expanding educational access, international assessments reveal a persistent crisis in learning outcomes. This study investigates the determinants of math achievement among Egyptian Grade 8 students using data from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) 2019. Applying a two-level hierarchical linear model (HLM) to a sample of 7,210 students, we disentangle the effects of student-level socioeconomic status (SES) and school-level resources. Our findings confirm the dominant role of socioeconomic disparities, revealing a nonlinear relationship where the benefits of wealth and parental education diminish at higher levels. In contrast, conventional school-level inputs show limited explanatory power. The results lead to the conclusion that achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG4) in Egypt requires redistributive policies that address structural socioeconomic barriers alongside targeted school-based reforms.