Understanding Public Perception in a Period of Political Volatility: A Multi-Theoretical Analysis of Malaysia, 2018–2022

Abstract

Public perception is a central determinant of political legitimacy, national stability and policy effectiveness. In Malaysia, the period from 2018 to 2022 witnessed unprecedented political turnover, multi-layered crises and contentious identity debates, resulting in highly volatile public assessments of national direction and leadership performance. This study analyzes the evolution of Malaysian public sentiment across five prime ministerial administrations—Najib Razak, Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, Muhyiddin Yassin, Ismail Sabri Yaakob and Anwar Ibrahim—using a convergent mixed-methods design that integrates time-series opinion poll data, economic indicators, media discourse and qualitative analysis of major political and social events. Guided by an integrated theoretical framework combining Agenda-Setting Theory, Political Trust Theory, Social Identity Theory and Crisis Management Theory, the findings demonstrate that public perception is shaped by (1) issue salience generated through hybrid media ecosystems; (2) shifting evaluations of governmental integrity, competence and legitimacy; (3) identity-based contestation surrounding ethnic and religious narratives; and (4) the government’s effectiveness in managing overlapping crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, economic disruptions and climate-related disasters. Empirically, the article shows that Malaysians increasingly evaluate governments through a layered logic that combines communal identity, perceived procedural legitimacy and performance-based crisis delivery. The study validates core propositions within these theories but highlights the need to refine them for multi-crisis, hybrid media and identity–performance contexts. It proposes an integrated identity–performance model of public evaluation in hybrid regimes and contributes a contextually grounded framework for understanding how citizens in Malaysia and similar systems assess political authority under conditions of volatility. This research provides a comprehensive model explaining how Malaysians evaluate government performance and offers policy insights for strengthening institutional trust, crisis governance and societal cohesion.