Heuristic Decision-Making Under Urgency: Managerial Cognition in Saudi Vision 2030 Giga-Projects

Abstract

Vision 2030 compresses timelines for Saudi giga-projects, forcing managers to decide quickly under uncertainty. This study explains how they do so safely and accountably. We analyze fifteen critical-incident interviews across multiple sectors, using cognitive mapping and an inductive Gioia approach to trace cues, fast rules, and checks. Managers apply a simple lexicographic logic—fix one non-negotiable (time, cost/viability, experience/brand, or safety/compliance)—and flex the rest. They bound risk with five lightweight guardrails: rapid tests, short approvals (often with immediate audits), targeted evidence sweeps, tight cadence with named owners, and escalation for long-lived downside. Saudi-specific conditions—regulatory tempo, hierarchical expectations, and public visibility—tune both what is fixed and how stringent verification must be. The paper offers a practical menu that helps sponsors, PMOs, and regulators deliver speed with credibility, and provides a portable model for other high-pressure programs.