Developing Sustainable Rural Tourism in Indonesia: A Cross-Impact Balance Analysis

Abstract

Rural tourism in Indonesia offers substantial potential to promote sustainable development, yet it faces multifaceted challenges spanning socio-economic, institutional, and technological domains. This study aims to identify optimal development scenarios for rural tourism using the Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) method to systematically assess key determinants and project potential trajectories for the growth of tourism villages in Bogor Regency, Indonesia. Five prospective scenarios were analyzed, focusing on village economic performance, stakeholder collaboration, government support, development strategy, information technology adoption, governance quality, and income distribution. The results indicate that the optimal scenario is characterized by autonomous economic growth, robust multi-stakeholder synergy, proactive government intervention, accountable governance, comprehensive digital innovation, and equitable income distribution. In contrast, scenarios marked by partial innovation or weak collaboration demonstrate lower sustainability and limited transformative capacity. These findings underscore the importance of adopting holistic and integrated policy approaches to strengthen governance, institutional capacity, and innovation ecosystems. This study contributes to strategic planning for sustainable rural tourism by providing a systems-based framework that aligns local initiatives with national development goals and emphasizes digital innovation and institutional strengthening as key enablers for enhancing competitiveness, resilience, and social equity in rural communities across Indonesia