Climate and Tourist Location in Saudi Arabia: A Spatial and Econometric Analysis of the Climatic Determinants of Tourist Area Selection

Abstract

The objective of this research is to empirically analyze how climatic factors influence the choice and spatial distribution of tourist areas in Saudi Arabia over the period 2005–2024. This study adopts a multidimensional perspective linking climatology, spatial economics, and tourist behavior. Methodologically, the work employs a spatial panel model and a discrete choice model to assess the direct and indirect effects of climatic variables—including average temperature, number of extreme days, humidity, rainfall, and sandstorms—on regional and seasonal tourist flows. The data used come from the Saudi Tourism Authority, the ERA5 and WorldClim climate databases, and environmental statistics from the Ministry of Environment. Preliminary empirical results indicate a non-linear relationship between climatic conditions and tourist activity. Coastal and mountainous areas exhibit a positive elasticity to thermal comfort, particularly during the cooler season (November–March), while desert areas experience a significant drop in visitor numbers during the months of extreme heat. Simulations under future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) suggest a gradual shift in demand towards higher-altitude regions and a shortening of the summer tourist season. Furthermore, the spatial dependence observed in the SAR and SDM models confirms the presence of neighborhood effects: the dynamics of a tourist region influence those of its neighbors, especially during periods of extreme conditions.