A Mathematical Model for Assessing the Economic and Social Impacts of Traffic Congestion an Applied Study on Riyadh City

Abstract

This paper develops and applies a comprehensive mathematical model to quantify the economic and social impacts of traffic congestion in Riyadh, the capital city of Saudi Arabia, which faces significant mobility challenges. A multi-dimensional assessment framework is proposed, integrating three core mathematical models: the Congestion Level Model (synthesizing 17 variables for a unified index), the Economic Impact Model (translating the index into costs for fuel, maintenance, and productivity loss), and the Social Impact Model (assessing consequences for time wasted, public health, and safety). The analysis utilizes a 10-year longitudinal dataset (2015-2024) specific to Riyadh, with model coefficients calibrated to the local context. The model application reveals a persistent upward trend in congestion severity over the past decade. The analysis estimates the annual economic burden to be substantial, with productivity losses representing the dominant cost component. Social impacts are equally severe, with wasted commuter time and negative health outcomes being the most significant societal burdens. The model shows strong correlations between population growth, urban density, and rising congestion levels. This study presents one of the first comprehensive, model-based frameworks for quantifying the dual economic and social dimensions of traffic congestion in a major Saudi Arabian city. The findings provide critical, evidence-based insights for policymakers, offering a robust analytical tool for evaluating mitigation strategies and informing investment priorities aligned with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 objectives.