Assessing the Effectiveness of the Energy Transition in Reducing CO₂ Emissions: A New Indicator for MENA Countries

Abstract

This study investigates the effectiveness of the energy transition in reducing CO₂ emissions in six MENA countries (Algeria, Egypt, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) over the period 1980–2024. To assess the cleanliness and quality of the energy mix, we employ a novel composite indicator, the Green Quality of Energy Mix (GQEM) (Lau et al., 2023). Annual data are converted into quarterly series and analyzed using advanced econometric techniques, including quantile-on-quantile regression (QonQR), quantile regression (QR), and Kernel Regularized Least Squares (KRLS). The results reveal asymmetric, nonlinear, and heterogeneous relationships between energy transition and CO₂ emissions. North African countries display a stronger negative impact of GQEM on emissions, whereas Gulf economies show unstable effects, reflecting their structural dependence on hydrocarbons. These findings highlight the importance of multidimensional indicators and nonlinear methods to accurately assess the energy transition in heterogeneous economies.