From Fiscal Input to Social Outcome: Literacy in the Effectiveness of Education Budget Policy

Abstract

This research seeks to evaluate the productivity of educational expenditure with respect to socio-economic advancement, positing literacy as a mediating variable across a cross-national sample. Employing a comparative quantitative design, the investigation utilizes panel dataset encompassing ten nations from the ASEAN and Sub-Saharan African regions, covering the years 2000 to 2022 to trace causal linkages amongst expenditure, literacy, and per capita GDP. Pathway regression indicates a sustained positive effect of educational outlay upon GDP per capita, with the effect manifesting both directly and indirectly via heightened literacy. Using the Sobel statistic, we are able to verify the mediating path as statistically recognizable, hence confirming literacy as a major transmission process. Inter-regional contrast shows that the member states with the best budgetary governance mainly from ASEAN increase the mediating coefficients more than those in Sub-Saharan Africa. This tendency supports the claim that the success of educational budgetary policy heavily relies on measurable results and the support of skilled institutions. The use of literacy as an evaluative endpoint thus furnishes an explicit lever of policy assessment concerning fiscal interventions upon human development. The investigation therefore prescribes a recalibration of educational budgeting frameworks, migrating decisively towards an outcomes-centred orientation; systematic embedding of literacy performance in budgetary review cycles; and fortification of bureaucratic proficiencies alongside intentional intra- and cross-sectoral collaboration. Limitations of the study arise from the absence of comprehensive literacy datasets for a subset of countries, coupled with the intentional omission of political and cultural determinants from the analytic frame.