Time Series (trend) Analysis of Some Climate Variables and Forest Resources Availability in the Central Agro-ecological Zone of Cross River State, Nigeria

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Published: Dec 29, 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.64753/jcasc.v10i4.3781
Keywords:
time series analysis, climate variables, forest resources availability, agroecological zones, anthropogenic activities, minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall and relative humidity

Main Article Content

Onnogehn,U. N.
Department of Environmental Education, Faculty of Science Education, University of Calabar, Nigeria
Alobo, E. E.
Faculty of Law, University of Calabar, Nigeria
Ebong, O. E.
Dept. of Modern Languages and Translational Studies
Eneji, C.V. O.
Department of Environmental Education
Etta, R. B
Department of Religious and Cultural Studies
Okpo-Ene, A. I.
Dept. of Physiology
Anthony Godwin B.
Dept. of Continuous Education and Development Studies, University of Calabar, Nigeria
Alobo, E. T.
Dept. of Public Law, Faulty of Law, University of Calabar, Nigeria
Nabiebu, M.
Dept. of Jurisprudence/ International Law, faculty of law, University of Calabar
Ebiala, P. O.
Dept. of Private Law, Faculty of Law, University of Calabar, Nigeria
Eyong, U. U.
Dept. of Religious and Cultural Studies, University of Calabar, Nigeria
Arop, L. O.
Dept. of Guidance and Counseling, University of Calabar, Nigeria
Obi, Joy, J.
Dept. of Physical Science Education, University of Calabar, Nigeria
Omini, E. E.
Dept. of Educational Management, University of Calabar, Nigeria
Okeme, I.
Dept. of Vocational and Agricultural Science Education, Faculty of Vocational Education, University of Calabar, Nigeria
Ekpang, P. U.
Dept. of Guidance and Counseling, University of Calabar, Nigeria
Oniro, I. I.
Department of Environmental Education, Faculty of Science Education, University of Calabar, Nigeria
Agene, P. E.
Dept. of Guidance and Counseling, University of Calabar, Nigeria

Abstract

This research did time series/ trend analysis of rainfall, temperature and relative humidity over a period of thirty-five years to identify changes and investigated how these changes influence forest resources availability in the Agro-ecological Zone of Cross River State, Nigeria. Quantitative and qualitative research methods were adopted. Climate data from 1988 to 2023 were sourced from the Nigerian meteorological Center Jos, Abuja and Calabar. Respondent’s opinion on socio-demographic variables and forest resources availability were elicited using structured questionnaire. Data generated were analyzed using simple descriptive statistics, while for the influence of climate change variables on forest resources availability was analyzed using one way analysis of variance (ANOVA). Climate change variables were analyzed using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA software) to regress and do the time series trend analysis. The result of the analysis shows that between 1988 and 2023, rainfall experienced some changes in 1988 with 1768.1mm3 to 2023 with 2221.3mm3 producing a variance of + 453.2 mm3. Between 1988 and 2023, there were some changes in temperature; by 1988, maximum temperature was 32.1 0c and by 2023 maximum temperature became 35.4 0c showing a difference of +3.3 0c. Minimum temperature was 22.6 0c by 1988, by 2023 minimum temperature was 24.90c, producing a difference of +2.3 0c. The relative humidity of the study area was 83% by 1988 and by 2023, it was 79% with a variance of -2%. The ANOVA result shows significant changes in climate variables with very significant influence on forest resources availability. It was concluded that between 1988 and 2023, there are significant changes in the three climate variables analyzed; these changes also have significant impacts on forest resources availability in the study area. It was recommended among others that alternative livelihood sources should be provided, while reducing pressure on the exploitation of forest resources for livelihood sustenance.

Article Details

How to Cite
N., O., E., A. E., E., E. O., O., E. C., B, E. R., I., O.-E. A., … E. , A. P. (2025). Time Series (trend) Analysis of Some Climate Variables and Forest Resources Availability in the Central Agro-ecological Zone of Cross River State, Nigeria. Journal of Cultural Analysis and Social Change, 10(4), 4305–4322. https://doi.org/10.64753/jcasc.v10i4.3781
Issue
2025: Volume 10 Issue 4
Section
Articles