Spatial Framework for Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment and Sustainable Agricultural Risk Mitigation in Batu City: Integrating Social, Economic, Physical, and Ecological Perspectives

Abstract

Agrarian regions exposed to multiple natural hazards exhibit complex and interrelated vulnerabilities, necessitating a holistic and integrated assessment approach. This study develops a spatial framework to evaluate multi-hazard agricultural vulnerability in Batu City, East Java, by integrating the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) and Self-Organizing Map (SOM) methodologies. Assessments were conducted at the village level to generate multidimensional vulnerability indices and clusters across social, economic, physical, and ecological variables. Data were standardized using z-score transformation, analyzed through Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and clustered using SOM to identify non-linear typological vulnerability profiles. The primary objective of this research is to spatially map multidimensional vulnerabilities to various hazards in Batu City, supporting sustainable disaster risk mitigation strategies and evidence-based policymaking in the agricultural sector. The findings reveal significant spatial heterogeneity Sisir Village consistently exhibited high vulnerability indeces over the past three years (2.92 to 6.19 to5.50), while Junrejo Village maintained consistently low vulnerability levels (1.16 to -0.29 to -1.30). Dominant vulnerability drivers varied across clusters, namely number of farmers (Cluster 1), access to communication (Cluster 2), and proportions of migrants and young children (Cluster 3). Subsequently, the derived indices and clusters were integrated with seismic amplification maps (Vs30), landslide susceptibility maps, and volcanic hazard maps related to Mount Arjuna-Welirang. Overlay analysis revealed significant overlap between areas of high vulnerability and zones of pronounced physical hazard, underscoring the urgent need for structural reinforcement, spatial planning controls, and prioritized resource allocation in agrarian disaster risk reduction efforts.