Structural Convergence of Macroeconomic Indicators in the European Union (2000–2024)

Abstract

This study analyses the dynamics of structural convergence of macroeconomic indicators within the European Union during 2000-2024 period of time, using an approach based on the transition matrix and similarity measures between cluster structures. The analysis highlights the way in which the relationships between economic indicators evolve over time, capturing both stability processes and episodes of structural fracture generated by major shocks. The results demonstrate that convergence does not follow a linear or cumulative path, but manifests discontinuously, being strongly influenced by contexts of crisis. Periods of time characterised by systemic constrains, such as the global financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic, are associated with high levels of structural similarity, reflecting institutionally and behaviourally induced convergence. On the other hand, in the absence of these shocks, economies tend to evolve differently, which leads to fragmentation of structures and a reduction in internal coherence. By using statistical measures of similarity and structural distance, the study offers an integrated perspective on the stability and mobility of the relationships between macroeconomic indicators, highlighting the episodic and fragile character of European convergence. The conclusions suggest that the resilience of the European Union does not derive from the maintenance of a stable structure, but from the capacity to repeatedly reorganize in the face of external shocks.